The fresh Trump tariffs which have specifically targeted BRICS countries, and India in particular, have once again made India suspect of the USA and its so-called pro-India geostrategic stance. There has been a flurry of visits exchanged between the Indian Foreign Minister and the NSA to Moscow and China, and there have been reciprocal visits. Pakistan Army Chief Munir has been invited to the USA twice in a span of two months. Transactional Trump has something cooking with Pakistan. Is it the oil and gas in Balochistan? Russian media have aggressively been supporting India to stand up to American bullying and take a strong stand. Russia has also, more openly, offered Russian top-end military hardware, including Su-57 fifth-generation aircraft, to India. PM Modi will be going to Beijing for the SCO meeting and on the sidelines will have bilateral meetings with President Xi Jinping and Putin.
Meanwhile, India will take time to forget the Chinese unprovoked military actions in Galwan in summer of 2020. More recently, China very actively supported its strongest ally Pakistan with hardware, intelligence and command and control, and global narrative building during “Op Sindoor”. US-led NATO was most openly supporting Ukraine against Russia. Trump is now trying to mediate peace between the two warring nations. This has left European leaders and Zelensky long-faced. Adversary of the USA, China has been tacitly backing Russia. In its desire not to antagonise the USA, India has chosen a neutral stand on the Ukraine–Russia conflict. It is obviously not working with Trump. China, and to some lesser extent Russia, are not happy with India becoming active in QUAD, a visibly anti-China grouping. Much to India’s chagrin, Russia continues to engage with Pakistan, which it considers as geographically important to safeguard its interests in Central Asia, but also to keep reminding India to not close up too much with the USA.
With India already the fourth largest economy, and among the fastest growing, both Russia and China have interest in continuing to engage with it. If Russia can woo India away from the West, then Russia India China (RIC) can become a very significant bloc. In 2025, the combined GDP, adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), of China (19.6%), India (8.23%), and Russia (3.48%) amounts to 31.31 percent of the world. The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) BRICS’ economic influence exceeds that of the G7. In 2025, RIC accounted for 37 percent of the global population. RIC is among the top 2025 global defence spenders after USA ($895 billion), with China ($266 billion), Russia ($126 billion), and India ($77 billion). In 2025, NATO member countries spent $1.506 trillion on defence, which was 55 percent of global military expenditure. NATO is practically opposing only one country, Russia. Does it even have raison d’être to exist after Warsaw Pact was wound down? But the recent conflict has underscored the Russian military might.
With this background, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reaffirmed on May 30, 2025, Moscow’s strong interest in reviving the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral dialogue, citing improved India–China border ties. Russia accuses the West of trying to support friction between India and China.
RIC Formation
RIC is an informal trilateral strategic grouping, originally conceptualized by Russia in the late 1990s to counterbalance Western dominance. Over the years, it facilitated over 20 ministerial-level meetings, fostering cooperation in foreign policy, economics, & security among the 3 nations. The RIC comprises three largest Eurasian countries that occupy 20.6 percent of the global landmass. All 3 are nuclear powers. Russia and China are permanent members of UN Security Council. All 3 countries are also members of BRICS, G20, & Shanghai Cooperation Organization etc. The group opposes unilateralism and supports the idea of a multipolar global governance model. It offers an alternative perspective on global issues, advocating for equity and reforms in global institutions. The group supports Eurasian integration through projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) & the Eurasian Economic Union.
For India, RIC format presents both opportunities & challenges. As India prioritizes strategic autonomy, it must balance opportunities in RIC avoiding being locked into any single camp, whether Western or non-Western. The grouping faced a major setback and became dormant after the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes between India & China. Some level thaw did take place when PM Modi and President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the 16th BRICS summit in Kazan in October 2024. India’s growing ties with the West and its role in the QUAD also complicates its simultaneous engagement with the RIC grouping. Russia’s growing closeness with China, especially in the wake of the Ukraine conflict, might raise concerns in India about the impartiality of the RIC platform.
RIC Summit Osaka
There have been 18 meetings of RIC (Russia-India-China) foreign ministers. The last RIC Summit was held at Osaka on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit, June 2019. It was just the third heads of state meeting of the group in 12 years. Frequency has been rather low. The last ministerial-level RIC meeting was held online in November 2021.
At Osaka, the three leaders essentially spoke on the geopolitical situation, peace and stability and economic challenges. They emphasised the need to strengthen the international system led by the United Nations. The need to promote a multi-polar world, a world in which there are many centres of influence and stability and also democracy in international relations. They felt the World Trade Organisation (WTO) needs reform. All three felt that globalization, and free and open trading system must continue, and opposed protectionism. The agenda of the developing countries and of the least developed countries must be imbibed in WTO reforms. Terrorism as a global scourge was discussed. To promote trilateral cooperation more specific areas needed to be evolved.
Russia-China Relations
Russia and China are two neighbouring large countries with global influence. Both once spearheaded the global communism. They did have serious differences and a border clash in 1960-70s, but since 1991, when Soviet Union imploded, they have maintained close relations. Russia primarily exports crude oil, coal, and gas to China, while China exports manufactured goods like cars, broadcasting equipment, and military hardware to Russia. China and Russia’s trade reached a record high in 2024, totalling $244.8 billion, despite Western sanctions on Russia. This reflects strong economic ties between the two nations. The close economic ties between China and Russia are seen as part of a broader strategy to challenge Western influence. In the long term, when China becomes the leading global power, how will the China–Russia relations pan-out, only time will tell. If West were to woo Russia and wean it away from China, situation could change.
Russia-India Relations
India and Russia share a long-standing, multifaceted relationship characterized by strong political, economic, and cultural ties. The two share a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership,” characterized by strong cooperation in various fields. Both nations cooperate in defence, nuclear energy, and space. Both endorse the importance of a multipolar world order. India is a major customer of Russian military equipment. They collaborate on projects like the production of T-90 tanks, Su-30 MKI aircraft, BrahMos missiles, AK-203 rifles among many other things. Bilateral trade has grown significantly, exceeding $65 billion in 2023-24. Indian companies invest in Russia’s oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, and IT sectors, while Russian companies invest in India’s energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors. Russia has been a key partner in India’s nuclear energy program, with the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project being a major example. The two are exploring new areas of cooperation, including deep sea exploration, space technology, and the development of the Russian Far East. While bilateral trade has grown, India’s imports from Russia significantly exceed its exports, creating a trade imbalance. Efforts are underway to address this. India has maintained a balanced approach to the Ukraine conflict, maintaining good relations with both Russia and the West. This has allowed India to benefit from increased access to Russian resources, including oil.
India-China Relations
India and China share a complex relationship marked by periods of cooperation and tension, particularly regarding the unresolved border dispute. While they are both major regional powers and have significant economic ties, their relationship is also characterized by strategic rivalry and mistrust. China wants a Bi-polar world and uni-polar Asia with its dominating influence. Russia and India want a multipolar world. India was the first non-communist nation to recognize the People’s Republic of China in 1950. The two countries signed the Panchsheel Agreement in 1954, emphasizing peaceful coexistence. But a major conflict erupted in 1962 over disputed border territories, particularly in Tibet, leading to China occupying part of Indian territory in Ladakh and elsewhere. In the 1980s, efforts were made to normalize relations through diplomatic engagement, with Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi visiting China in 1988. In 2014, the two sides redefined their bilateral engagement as a “Closer Developmental Partnership”.
The Line of Actual Control (LAC), the border between the two countries, is not officially demarcated, leading to disagreements and occasional clashes. Recent incidents include the Doklam standoff in 2017 and the Galwan Valley clash in 2020. China is India’s largest trading partner but India has a significant trade deficit. India and China see each other as strategic rivals, with competition for influence in South Asia and beyond.
The two sides continue to engage. Negotiations on the border issue continue, and there have been efforts to maintain peace and tranquillity along the LAC. The future of the relationship will depend on how they manage these competing dynamics. India-China relations remain the weak link of the RIC triangle.
Leaders Chemistry and Country Importance
Between 2014 and 2020 there was great personal chemistry between Russian President Putin, Indian PM Modi, and Chinese President Xi Jinping. That could have worked wonders. Modi and Xi had 18 bilateral one-on-one meetings in 2014-19. Then all of a sudden there was a lull due Covid and Galwan. The two met at Kazan in October 2024 for first bilateral meeting in five years. Xi Jinping has made three visits to India, four visits each to South Africa and Vietnam, five visits to France, Kazakhstan, and the United States, and eleven visits to Russia. Over a much longer period of Putin being in power, he has made 9 visits to India, but 20 to China. All this indicates the importance each country gives to the other.
India-US Relations Dynamics
India and the United States have a complex and evolving relationship characterized by both cooperation and areas of disagreement. The relationship is rooted in shared values, including democracy and the rule of law. With the dawn of the new century, cooperation between the two increased. This was also driven by USA’s interest in the Indo-Pacific to counter rising China. India became a significant defence partner of USA, and acquired many military platforms. Key enabling defence agreements include GSOMIA, LEMOA, COMCASA, and BECA were signed. The bilateral economic relationship is growing, with increased trade and investment, but also tensions.
Indian analysts and public view USA with a level trust deficit. The two differ on regional dynamics. USA continues to closely engage Pakistan. Even approach to China differs. USA considers India the weak link in QUAD in terms of commitment. India’s move to Tier-1 of the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Strategic Trade Authorization license exception was meant to facilitate defence trade and also technology transfer. But the later has still to actually happen. While the overall trade is strong, there are trade imbalances in India’s favour. The new Trump administration has withdrawn India’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) and imposed tariffs on Indian goods, causing serious frictions.
USA and RIC Dynamics
USA is not very amused by Russia India and China coming together in RIC and BRICS. USA is concerned about losing pre-eminence in the global order. They are worried about de-Dollarization. USA has been trying to use the Western financial muscle for sanctions against Russia, Iran, North Korea and some others through its Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). But this has been of not much avail. In fact Russia managed to sell much more oil and gas after the sanctions were imposed.
The other two RIC members China and India were hit by trade tariffs. Upon the second inauguration of Donald Trump in January 2025, the average effective US tariff rate was 2.5 percent. Today India faces 50 percent tariffs, including 25 percent for buying Russian oil. The highest level in over a century. China, the world’s second-largest economy, second-biggest trading partner for the US has had tariffs up to 34 percent. In 2024, the US recorded its largest trade deficit with China, importing nearly $440 billion worth of goods from the country, accounted for nearly 17 percent of total goods imports into the US.
RIC Challenges and Opportunities
While India remains an important member of QUAD in USA’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, but the recent tariffs may cast a negative shadow on the broader US-India strategic ties. It is no coincidence that strengthened bonhomie among the three RIC leaders has come amid these difficult times. Speaking at a security conference in Perm on May 29, Sergey Lavrov declared that “the time has come” to bring back the RIC mechanism, citing signs of de-escalation in India-China border tensions. While trying to push multilateralism, each country has to defend their national interests.
Undoubtedly Russia has a strong and genuine interest in strengthening RIC. But will strengthening RIC help New Delhi manage American tariffs? India’s balance of payments with both RIC partners is very unfavourable. While China and Pakistan were running an anti-India nexus, Russia was forced to give a blind eye while ostensibly assuring support. Will Russia be an impartial balancing partner between India and China in RIC, considering China’s larger influence? Does Russia have the political heft and muscle to get India and China resolve boundary issues? Will China stop propping up Pakistan to pin down India? Can Russia ask China not to support Pakistan to the extent it does? Can China give a strong assurance to India on maintaining peace and tranquillity on the LAC? Unlikely. Where will be the give-and-take?
If RIC becomes an anti-USA group, it will not be good for China either as its economy hugely depends on trade with the West. Can scope of RIC be expanded, with foreign policy, economic, trade and financial agencies of the three countries working more closely? Greater give and take on minerals, on rare earths, microchips, and other technologies? With Russia and China being powerful Autocracies, will democratic India get subsumed in the grouping? Are RIC members ready for substantial military exercises between them without significant distrust? Answer is No.
India wants Russia to join India-led Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) to signal that it’s not just a US-centric plan. India’s focus on economic links with the Russian Far East and activation of a Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor may help persuade Russia that its interests in the Pacific are compatible with our interest in diluting Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pacific. This also goes with President Putin’s concept of a Greater Eurasia. The ongoing India-Iran-Russia project for a sea/road/rail link from western India through Iran to Afghanistan and Central Asia is an important initiative for achieving an effective Indian presence in Central Asia, alongside Russia and China.
China and Russia have had conflicting territorial claims in the far-east. Russia’s declining demographics and much more powerful China could take advantage one day.
Some analysts believe that by imposing harsh tariffs, USA is pushing New Delhi into Beijing’s lap. Would RIC incline towards becoming an anti-American alliance? As India prioritizes strategic autonomy, it would prefer balancing opportunities in RIC avoiding being locked into any single camp. Meanwhile, has Washington really come in support of New Delhi, in India’s China dynamics remains a question without answers.
Until recently, China and India accounted for nearly 70 percent of Russia’s arms exports, and often both India and China bought the same systems (S-400, Su-30). But now China is becoming independent on that count. More and more China made copies of Russian equipment are finding their way to Pakistan.
RIC countries with important influence at international and regional levels and emerging market economies, need to further strengthen practical coordination on global and regional issues in the spirit of openness, solidarity, mutual understanding and trust. Notwithstanding the bilateral asymmetries, India and China have no choice but to engage bilaterally and multilaterally on a range of issues, even while firmly protecting own interests. Being India’s leading trade partner, China has a significant role indeed in driving the Indian economy and creating high-quality manufacturing jobs. Chinese analysts have taken note of a recent shift in the Indian policy to attract more Chinese investment.
The Chinese economy is heavily dependent on the American market. Some understanding on trade between the US and China will emerge, sooner rather than later. This will also have dynamics for RIC. With American global standing dipping a little, there could be some shift in the years ahead. Meanwhile, Russia is also uncomfortable with the growing Chinese influence in its backyard in Central Asia.
Russia’s call to revive the RIC format reflects its strategic intent to bolster regional cooperation and counterbalance Western influence. It is in Russia’s interests to be a facilitator in the India-China relationship. Strengthened RIC will give India greater leverage to resist Western pressures and also to maintain strategic autonomy.
Partnering with the two most populous and among the biggest economies, gives Russia strength. The success of this trilateral initiative will depend on the political will of all three nations to navigate complex geopolitical dynamics and prioritize mutual interests to become the symbol of the multipolar world and its core. The US will continue to exploit contradictions in the RIC.
For RIC to succeed, India is a key player, and its sensitivities about China have to be assuaged. China has to pull back on its support to Pakistan and stop using as leverage against India. It is time to reinvigorate and give RIC a fresh chance. Participating in RIC helps India showcase its strategic autonomy and send a message to Washington, which has repeatedly expressed its displeasure over India’s close ties with Russia.
Note: The article was originally written by the Author for First Post on August 26th, 2025, it has since been updated.
Header Picture Credit: Author
Twitter: @AirPowerAsia
Air Power Asia 