The dust has still to settle, and the blood continues to boil as India unfolds a slew of harsh responses after the gruesome massacre of innocent holiday makers at Pahalgam. Practically all world leaders have condemned the attack and stand in solidarity with India. UN Security Council has passed a resolution, albeit made milder by Pakistan’s iron-brother China. This will not be allowed to go by. There is nation-wide anger. There will be repercussions. Indian security establishment continues to be in a huddle, mulling a variety of options. The armed forces are exercising and preparing for eventualities that the political leadership could choose from.
Internal security Actions
Internal security in Kashmir has been tightened. Intelligence failure is being looked at, and those who were lax will be dealt with most appropriately. The pony handlers, shopkeepers, and travel agents are being questioned. Leads are being established to find the local handlers and terror supporters. Over ground workers (OGWs), who are known to help militants or terrorists with logistical support, cash, shelter, and other infrastructure with which armed groups and insurgency movements operate, are being identified. OGWs play a vital role in militant attacks, providing real-time information and support to the tactical elements. Over ground workers have diversified into other roles such as stone-pelting, mob-rioting, ideological support, radicalisation, and recruitment of militants. A few 1,000 have been detained and are being questioned. The houses of known separatist/militant leaders have been razed to the ground.
Need to Educate the Masses
What also pains is the fact that 28 people got killed by just 4 terrorists. Those killed included a few military personnel. No one resisted. In fact, 20 of them lowered their pants when ordered. If one or two, or all, had resisted and taken on the terrorists with bare hands, the number of deaths may have been much less. Only if the bullet goes through the head or heart does death come quickly. The human body is quite capable of taking many bullets elsewhere and surviving. I think we need to educate the masses that when instant death is facing you, the only way out is to resist and take the terrorist on.
Asim Munir – The Instigator
Addressing the Overseas Pakistanis Convention in Islamabad, General Asim Munir didn’t just speak about Balochistan, but his anti-Hindu diatribe instigated hate among Pakistani masses. He quoted Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the founding father of Pakistan, that Hindus and Muslims followed different philosophies, customs, and laws—making national unity impossible. Munir returned to the very roots of Pakistan’s ideological foundation. “Our religion is different, our customs are different, our traditions are different, our thoughts are different, and our ambitions are different. We are two nations,” he said. He called on overseas Pakistanis to pass down this ideology to future generations. “You have to narrate Pakistan’s story to your children so that they don’t forget it,” he added. Hindu hatred is clearly visible from the modus operandi of the attack. Munir is clearly following in the footsteps of Generals Zia-ul-Haq and Musharraf, who ruled Pakistan by spreading religious hate and anti-India sentiment. Pakistan is in a financial mess. The masses are suffering. The popular leader Imran Khan has been kept in jail through propped-up charges. Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif is holding on to his chair at Pak Army’s mercy. Thus, clearly the Pak Army is calling all the shots without taking blame for all the failures.
Pakistan Army’s Hands Soaked in Innocents’ Blood
Footprints and tell-tale signs of Pakistani Army’s backing are emerging. Pakistan cannot stand peace and prosperity emerging in Kashmir. The state has been incident-free after Article 370 abrogation. Tourist numbers have been going up. Public participation in elections has been very significant. Chief Minister Omar Abdulla has been working closely with the Central government for the betterment of the masses. Kashmir’s integration with India was not palatable to the Pakistan ruling establishment (Pak Army). Pakistan is an ideological state, and the Pakistan army has taken up the mantle of the guardian of the ideology. The Pakistan army claims that India cannot intimidate it. While China has condemned the Pahalgam terror attack, it is very happy that Pakistan keeps bleeding India and prevents it from becoming a challenger in Asia. 80 percent of all military equipment in Pakistan is of Chinese origin. The arms and ammunition used by the terrorists in Kashmir were of Pakistani origin.
India Begins Pressure
India has put in abeyance the 1960 Indus Water Treaty. All trade between the two nations, including through third counties, has been suspended. It has closed the Integrated Check Post Attari with immediate effect. All ceremonies at the India-Pakistan border check-posts have been stopped. Pakistani YouTube and other social media channels have been barred in India. Cricket and other sporting events have been suspended. Pakistani nationals will not be permitted to travel to India under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) visas. SVES visas already issued in the past to Pakistani nationals are deemed cancelled. He said any Pakistani national currently in India under an SVES visa has 48 hours to leave India. The Defence/Military, Naval and Air Advisors in the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi have been declared Persona Non Grata. They have a week to leave India. India will be withdrawing its own Defence/Navy/Air Advisors from the Indian High Commission in Islamabad. These posts in the respective High Commissions are deemed annulled. The overall strength of the High Commissions will be brought down to 30 from the present 55 through further reductions by 1st May. India will use its financial and diplomatic muscle to teach Pakistan a lesson. The other options with India are to support secessionist forces in Pakistan and more actively support insurgency in Balochistan, Sindh, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. India may work closely with Afghanistan and Pashtuns.
Military Options
Indian armed forces are on high vigil. Armed Forces have already launched operation “Tikka”. A few terrorists have already been eliminated. Indian Army is giving a massive response to unprovoked firing at the Line of Control (LoC). The ceasefire is de-facto annulled. Indian armed forces are already carrying out preparatory joint military exercises. Selective mobilisation of Armed Forces is possible, albeit, to send a strong signal. India could exercise a massive punishing multi-domain strike. An artillery barrage against terror camps across the border could be launched. Pakistan will run out of ammunition much faster. Air still remains the best choice for quick response. Army and Navy could back such action with follow-on events.
Fighter Aircraft and Aerial Weapons Advantage Indian Air Force
IAF has nearly 31 fighter squadrons vis-à-vis 18 of Pakistan. Among the 4th+ generation aircraft are Su-30-MKI, Rafale, Mirage 2000 and MiG-29. Their equivalents with Pakistan are the F-16 and J-10CE. Their fighter aircraft numbers are half of India’s. The Rafale can carry the Scalp-EG cruise missile (550 Km range), and Meteor AAM (150-200 km range). The Su-30 MKI and upgraded MiG 29 and Mirage-2000 are potent assets. Pakistan does have around 500 AIM-120C-5 AMRAAM missiles (100 km range). The PL-12 range is 70-100 kilometres. There are unconfirmed reports that the PAF has the Chinese export variant PL-15E AAM with a range of 145 km on J-10s and also JF-17 Block III. Clearly, Indian AAMs have range advantage.
IAF has a huge inventory of air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM). BrahMos missiles have a range of 450-800 km. The Kh-35 ALCM has a range of 260 kilometres. India has the Spice 2000 glide bombs with an add-on kit for 450/900 kg warheads and CEP of less than 3 metres. Typically, its range is around 60 kilometres. The “Crystal Maze 2” is a medium-range air-to-surface ballistic missile, also known as “ROCKS,” developed by Israel and used by the IAF. It’s designed for precision strikes on high-value targets, including long-range radars and air defence systems, even in GPS-denied environments. The missile has a strike range exceeding 250 kilometres and can be equipped with either a penetration or blast fragmentation warhead. Pakistan has the Maverick air-to-ground (AGM) missile with a range of 25 kilometres and a warhead of around 100 kg. The Ra’ad-II is a standoff and an air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) derived from the Hatf-VIII Ra’ad, and has a range of 600 kilometres and carries a 450 kg warhead. The H-2 and H-4 are SOW (Stand-Off Weapon) precision-guided glide bombs with a range of around 60 km. Both sides also have some other air-launched weapons.
Airfields & Air Defences
IAF has a clear advantage in number of airfields, including a large number of dual-use airfields. PAF has 19 flying stations, of which around 15 will be active in case of operations. IAF has a larger inventory of S-400, Barak MR-SAM, Akash, Spyder, S-125, OSA-8 and Igla ground-based AD systems, compared with PAF’s much fewer Spada-2000, Crotale, HQ-9 & HQ-16, Anza MK-II, RBS 70 AD systems.
Force Multipliers and Airborne troops
While IAF has six AEW&C and six air refuellers, PAF has four each of the Saab 2000 Erieye and Shaanxi Y-8 ZDK-03 variants AEW&C. These are much less capable than IAF’s IL-76 based ‘Phalcon’. PAF also has three Dassault Falcon 20 modified for a primary role in electronic warfare (EW). IAF has no dedicated EW platform as of date. Another area of edge for PAF could be encrypted radio and R/T jamming facilities.
India has a clear advantage in number of airborne troops. India has 12 C-130 J-40 Special Forces penetration aircraft. India also has a much larger fleet of transport aircraft and helicopters. India is also well placed in UAVs and drone numbers.
To Summarize
While a full-scale war between the two nuclear neighbours is unlikely and not desirable, IAF is well placed to dominate the skies and pin down the PAF. It has capability to strike terror targets across the border with or without crossing the LoC. IAF is well placed to defend. S-400 will force the PAF force multipliers farther away and make them less effective. India has much better munitions and missile inventories. In case of a foolhardy PAF mission, India could give back a disproportionately powerful response.
The bigger aim would be to show the Pakistan military in poor light. India must call Pakistan’s nuclear bluff. With China feverishly modernising and increasing its nuclear forces, India must do the same for improved deterrence. Punishment has not to be a one-time activity; it has to be a continuous program from now on. Make it painful for them to support terrorism. Stop peace overtures like “Aman ki Asha”. Meanwhile, India must pay greater attention towards building military capability. Get the IAF fighter squadron numbers up, by making one-time imports. Stop downsizing Indian Army. The LoC must be sealed more effectively. Pakistani supporters in Kashmir should be dealt with a heavy hand.
Pakistan has also put its military on alert. Border areas are being sensitized by them for possible Indian attack. India must not take the Pakistani military lightly. Pakistan has suspended “Shimla Agreement” that had made the LoC as the temporary border. India can thus work to gain ground in PoK.
There are many Indian politicians who consider Bangladeshi and Rohingya infiltrators as their political support base and are turning a blind eye to their entry and settlement. It is time to take appropriate actions to curb this trend. There is a tendency for security forces and intelligence agencies to be less vigilant when there is an extended period of peace. It happened in Kargil. Kashmir requires continuous vigil for decades to come. Indian public has to be sensitised much more against terrorists. Time to allow Indians to buy property in Kashmir. Time to Act is now. Soft reaction will invite further similar dastardly acts.
Note: The article was originally written by the Author for The EurAsian Times on, April 29th, 2025, it has since been updated.
Header Picture Credit: Author
Twitter: @AirPowerAsia
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