China encircled Taiwan in massive military display. Chinese military rehearsed blockade of island’s north and south and carried out 10 hours of live-firing drills around the threatened island. Taiwan said that China was simulating strikes on US-made weapons. USA and Europeans condemned China’s drills.
Earlier in December 2025, the US NDAA for Fiscal Year (FY) 2026 authorized up to $11.1 billion for Taiwan under the Taiwan Security Cooperation Initiative. Largest US arms package for Taiwan includes HIMARS rocket systems, howitzers, Javelin anti-tank missiles, Altius loitering munition drones and parts for other equipment. The legislation also supports joint US-Taiwan projects, such as a joint drone program, and enhanced joint Coast Guard training. Taiwan’s normal defence spending is around $19 billion a year. In November 2025, Taiwan unveiled $40 bn special budget for defence spending over next eight years to counter China. It also laid out plans to boost annual defence spending to more than 3 percent of GDP next year and 5 percent by 2030. Taiwan has plans to purchase US weapon systems. The United States continues to assist Taiwan in maintaining sufficient self‑defence capabilities and in rapidly building strong deterrent power and leveraging asymmetric warfare advantages, which form the foundation for maintaining regional peace and stability.
With the rise of China, and its belligerent act of usurping nearly 3 million square kilometres of South China Sea (SCS) Indo-Pacific has become the new region for global geopolitics and confrontation. The “Quad“ alignment between USA, Japan, Australia and India is a tacit anti-China grouping. Japan and South Korea are increasing their military spending and strength. The USA-backed Taiwan is no walk over for China.
“Justice Mission 2025” – The Recent Drills
China fired rockets into waters off Taiwan on Tuesday, showcased new assault ships and dismissed prospects of US and allied intervention to block any future attack by Beijing to take control of the island in its most extensive war games to date. Chinese naval and air force units also simulated strikes on maritime and aerial targets and carried out anti-submarine drills around the island, while state media released images touting Beijing’s technological and military superiority and its ability to take Taiwan by force if necessary. For the first time, China’s military said the drills were aimed at deterring outside intervention.
The drills called “Justice Mission 2025”, began 11 days after the US announced a record arms package to Taiwan. Chinese military warned that they would “take forceful measures” in response. “Any external forces that attempt to intervene in the Taiwan issue or interfere in China’s internal affairs will surely smash their heads bloody against the iron walls of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army,” China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said in a statement.
The drills this week, the sixth major round of war games since 2022, were the largest by area and the closest yet to Taiwan. “China not only has vast numerical superiority, it now has qualitative superiority across the board in weaponry and probably in training as well,” said Lyle Goldstein, Asia programme director at US-based think tank DefencePriorities. Chinese newspapers highlighted the first deployment of the Type 075 amphibious assault ship. Zhang Chi, an academic at China’s National Defence University, said the vessel can simultaneously launch attack helicopters, landing craft, amphibious tanks and armoured vehicles.
As US lawmakers and the European Union condemned Beijing’s actions as undermining regional peace and stability, US President Donald Trump, downplayed the threat of the drills, and said, he had a “great relationship” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Trump said that he was not worried about the drills, adding that China has carried out naval exercises around Taiwan for more than 20 years. But, a Pentagon report released last week said the US military believed China was preparing to be able to win a fight for Taiwan by 2027, the centenary of the founding of the PLA.
Taiwan sits alongside key commercial shipping and aviation routes, with some $2.45 trillion in trade moving through the Taiwan Strait each year. Taiwan’s Civil Aviation Authority said that although 11 of Taipei’s 14 flight routes were affected by the drills, no international flights had been cancelled. Taiwan’s defence ministry said 71 Chinese military aircraft and 24 navy and coast guard vessels had been operating around the island during the drills and China fired 27 rockets in Taiwan’s waters.
Meanwhile, Beijing has also intensified its rhetoric over Taiwan in the weeks since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested a hypothetical attack on the island could trigger a military response from Tokyo. Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te said that frontline troops were primed to defend the island but that Taipei did not seek to escalate the situation.
The Political Signalling
After what happened to Hong Kong, Taiwan realized that there is nothing like “One Nation Two Systems” in China. Taiwan’s resolve to remaining independent free democracy strengthened.
In Lai’s first address after take over May 2024, he had said that “the Republic of China, Taiwan, is a sovereign and independent nation with sovereignty resting in the people” and stressed that his government would make no concessions on its democracy and freedoms. Beijing strongly objected to what they view as an attempt to develop a comprehensive ‘Taiwan independence’ narrative.
Taiwan saw an unprecedented third consecutive term in power for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which is detested by Beijing as a “dangerous separatist” for championing the island’s sovereignty and distinct identity. Beijing has denounced Lai’s inauguration speech, during which he called on China to cease its intimidation of Taiwan.
China’s ruling Communist Party says Taiwan is part of its territory, despite never having controlled it, and has vowed to take the island, by force if necessary. Interestingly, Japan controlled Taiwan as a colony for 50 years, from 1895 to 1945, after ceding it from Qing China via the Treaty of Shimonoseki following the First Sino-Japanese War. Japan claims Taiwan as its own.
Of late, China has started claiming Taiwan Strait as an internal waterway. Under Xi Jinping, China has grown more assertive and ramped up diplomatic, economic and military pressure on Taiwan. China’s military drills are also meant to play to a domestic audience as much as for international signalling.
Victor Gao, Chair Professor at Soochow University in China believes that Lai’s May 20 inaugural speech was a declaration of war because he clearly distinguished China from Taiwan and completely destroyed the one-China principle. “There’s no surprise. Whenever there’s an action that highlights Taiwan in the international sphere the Chinese feel compelled to make some statements,” the US Indo-Pacific Command spokesperson had said. China’s latest drills are part of the PLA’s long-term, strategic preparations to fight and win a war over Taiwan.
Taiwan’s Response to Exercise
President Lai said he would “stand on the front line” to defend Taiwan, without directly referring to the ongoing drills. Taiwan’s 23 million people have long become used to the threat of China’s war drills, and life continued as normal in the capital Taipei. “We stand by with firm will and restraint. We seek no conflicts, but we will not shy away from one. We have the confidence to safeguard our national security,” said Taiwan’s presidential spokesperson. China’s military drill around Taiwan, are a “unilateral provocation” that destabilizes regional peace and stability, she added.
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry condemned China’s drills as “irrational provocations” that highlights (China’s) militaristic mentality and “hegemonic nature” they added. In response to the drills, Taiwan activated air defences, and fighter aircraft were scrambled against missions entering within Taiwan ADIZ. They also transported Hsiung Feng III (HF-3) supersonic anti-ship missiles to the coast in response to China’s drills.
Chinese Military Capability for Invasion
Till date, China has insisted and prevented foreign military basing in Taiwan and deployment of nuclear weapons. The PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) could be a major threat to Taiwan. The PLARF operates both the nuclear and conventional ballistic and cruise missiles. China has qualitatively and quantitatively upgraded its conventional and nuclear forces. China also has anti-shipping missiles. Numbers are significant and going up. Hypersonic weapons have been tested and are operational.
China has the world’s largest naval fleet by numbers, albeit they are much behind the USA in tonnage. The assault and transport ships capacities are going up. Fusion of civil and military assets will bring in inter-island ferries as troop transports. They have also erected a mock-up of a US aircraft carrier at a field firing range for practice attacks.
Airpower would be very important for the invasion. The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) has inducted the indigenous J-20 stealth fighters in large numbers. Satellites and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) are engaged in sea surveillance and reconnaissance, and also act as communication relays. The PLAAF has many airbases closer to Taiwan giving it significant strike capability. Achieving air superiority will be important for both the maritime blockade and any amphibious invasion. China would carry out simultaneous cyber and electromagnetic attacks on Taiwanese sensors and command and control networks. PLAAF and PLA Naval Aviation can field over 1,200 combat aircraft. China currently has three operational aircraft carriers: the Liaoning (CV-16), Shandong (CV-17), and the recently commissioned Fujian (CV-18). PLAA has six Amphibious Combined Arms Brigades established after the 2017 reforms, and are working to enlarge numbers. They will use both civil and naval vessels. PLAAF’s Airborne Corps can lift around 11,000 troops and related equipment.
Invading Taiwan Complexities
China’s aggressive air and maritime forays into Taiwanese territory over the years have been creating conditions and preparing grounds for a smooth transition from peace to war. It also makes it difficult to assess the intentions and timing of actual assault, thus keeps Taiwan under fear of uncertainty.
Any invasion would mean crossing the Taiwan Strait which is 128 km wide at the narrowest point. The invasion would involve a major amphibious task force, landing and transporting of soldiers, armoured vehicles, artillery, ammunition, fuel, food, and medical supplies. Before all this can be done, China would have to run an air and surface campaign to suppress enemy air defences (SEAD). The Island would have to be pulverized through a missile attack. After securing some parts of the island, airlifts would follow. The invasion of this scale will require a lot of training and pre-invasion rehearsals.
Some are suggesting that nearly 400,000 troops may have to be transported. A huge sea fleet would have to be assembled. This cannot go unnoticed. Such a fleet would be vulnerable to artillery fire, air-strikes and submarines. Also during both embarkation, and disembarkation. China would have to seize Taiwanese airfields to land forces. A highly urbanized country will pose operational hurdles. If China decides to take over some of the many smaller islands before the actual assault it will expose its plans and will invoke global wrath. In any case some of the larger islands have strong defences.
Blockade Option
Could China indulge in air and/or maritime blockade is being also feared. Maritime blockade could physically cut off Taiwan from the world. An air blockade could mean establishing air supremacy and no-fly zone over Taiwan. It would require a multi-domain attack through electro-magnetic spectrum control and cyberspace to cripple Taiwan’s command and control system. With heavy U.S. presence in the region, the same may not be easy or without serious incident. China’s military still has limitations in range and reach to take-on a possible US and Japanese intervention.
Taiwanese Defences
For its defence, Taiwan has early warning through ground/ship-based and airborne sensors. Taiwan has some of the highest elevations in the Indo-Pacific region, with more than 200 peaks topping 3,000 m, and the highest “Yushan” being 3,952 m. Taiwanese radars can see hundreds of miles into Chinese territory. Taiwan also has the U.S. PAVE PAWS radar that can detect PLA ballistic missile launches thousands of kilometres away. The Taiwanese air force has over 400 fighter aircraft, of which nearly half are 4th generation-plus upgraded F-16s and French Mirage 2000 fighter jets.
Taiwan’s main military strength is in its air defences. The fighter aircraft are well protected in hardened shelters and mountain-caves. They have the most modern networked American AD weapons. Any pre-emptive surface missile attack would tantamount to full scale conflict and would face military response. Taiwan has the capability and military strength to absorb the initial missile barrage.
Taiwan would have to defend ports and airbases. Taiwan has good runway repair capability, and can recover one in less than three hours. Taiwanese command and control centres are also underground and well protected with back-up centres. The military carries out regular training exercises, including take-offs and landings from highways.
Conscious of Chinese incursions, Taiwan regularly exercises its early warning system. Taiwan also closely monitors and tries to enforce control in its ADIZ.
Defence of military and civil networks from cyber-attacks will be critical. Taiwan already faces and successfully defends many Chinese cyber-attacks daily. Taiwan has a small but credible cyber force managed by newly created Cyber Security Agency. Taiwan is also increasing indigenous defence production.
U.S. Support
Though the West, including USA, had committed to “One China” policy, but there are more voices in American security establishment that call for defending Taiwan for America’s economic interests, democracy and international standing.
As per the US Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), “the United States shall provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character and shall maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan“. US military has sizeable presence in the region, and provides air defence alerts to its allies, including Taiwan.
USA allocates large sums (over $40 billion from FY2021-2024) for Pacific Defence Initiative (PDI). Also, of late, the US Congress has been pushing for more support to Taiwan’s defence preparedness. The newly introduced Taiwan Deterrence Act and Arm Taiwan Act would authorize $2 billion and $3 billion a year respectively in foreign military aid to procure defensive systems.
Unlike in Japan and South Korea, there are no US military personnel stationed in Taiwan. Some are suggesting that the US must have a Taiwan Defence Command headquartered elsewhere, but with some forward elements in Taiwan. On an average 100 US officials, including military personnel, visit Taiwan each week. How much physical support the US will give to Taiwan in case of attack by China will have to be seen.
The US already has two aircraft carrier groups in the region, and its Indo-Pacific Command can muster up to five carrier groups with F-35 class fighters, and massive fire power. There are also many cruise missile carrying ships.
USA also has significant military presence in the region including its own Islands including Guam. The US Seventh Fleet is based in Japan. At Japanese island of Okinawa, US has huge military assets including an F-22 squadron that moves frequently. US military is in large numbers in Korean peninsula. The US Air Force fighters are less than an hour away. US has bases in the Philippines. US B-2 bombers can operate from Australia and elsewhere.
USA, Japan and South Korea, all operate their AEW&C aircraft in the region. Taiwan is also a beneficiary of the US Space Command shared early warning. The US supports Taiwanese war-planning and builds tacit linkages with US Indo-Pacific forces. Taiwanese people know that they are not alone.
Japanese Support
As China continues to intrude into the Japanese and Taiwan ADIZ, Japan has been coordinating closely with Taiwan, and fortifying its southern most islands. Japan pledges to defend Taiwan if China attacks. Japanese military planners have been factoring that any military action against Taiwan would draw in Japan, because if Taiwan goes, some Japanese islands will be next targets. Japan has significant armed forces and their defence budgets are going up and so are investments in more offensive weapons.
India’s Taiwan Connect and Options
Last year Taiwan sought 100,000 Indian workers for factories, farms and hospitals. Notwithstanding India’s ‘One-China Policy‘, India has been strengthening people-to-people contacts, trade, business, educational, and cultural ties with Taiwan. Taiwanese firms have emerged as key players in India’s efforts to ramp up its capability to manufacture semiconductors chips. Many analysts suggest that India and Taiwan are seeking to strengthen relations to counter Chinese threat.
India is rising economy and significant military power. USA Indo-Pacific strategy hinges on contribution by India to check China and act as a bulwark and pressure point.
Meanwhile, China’s unprovoked actions in Galwan of 2020 had angered 1.4 billion people. The QUAD is a tacit anti-China alliance. Some are even calling it Asia’s NATO. China is not happy about it.
India is nearly diametrically opposite to Taiwan, across China. China’s annexation of Taiwan would have global power-balance implications. It will adversely impact India. The status quo on Taiwan suits India, as China’s focus remains eastward. With significant Indian military forces continuing to face the PLA across Himalayas, China is conscious of its military being already committed on its South-Western border.
World’s gradual but deliberate efforts to delink from Chinese supply chains will affect China in the long-term. India’s growing economic and technological contacts with Taiwan are also somewhat helplessly being watched by China.
If China annexes Taiwan, it will impact India’s security and economy. Larger Chinese military assets will then move towards the Line of Actual control (LAC). China could also become aggressive on its further claims in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. PLA navy will also be free to move in larger numbers to Indian Ocean. It is thus in India’s interest to support forces that will strengthen Taipei and prevent Taiwan invasion.
Conclusion
Ukraine has shown that any invading force would still have huge challenges to overcome. China’s security establishment has been watching this closely. Taiwan will be no walk-over. Despite the great advantage of military numbers and modern equipment, the PLA would still struggle to take the island. Yet, fast modernizing and growing PLA must not be taken lightly. Standalone military asymmetry between the two sides is huge.
Taiwan’s reunification is the highest priority for Xi Jinping and China’s military. China poses an existential threat to Taiwan. A full-scale invasion is very much a possibility. Timing is an issue. PLA’s show of force will continue till then. Aerospace and maritime power will be the main coercive instruments. World must support Taiwan in building credible deterrence, so that China knows that there is no “winning without a costly fight”.
Note: The article was originally written by the Author for The Eurasian Times on January, 1st 2026, it has since been updated.
Header Picture Credit: Representative Image Generated using AI
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