The still less explored Arctic region is known to be a rich repository of unexploited natural resources, especially gas and oil and marine life. It has also for long been considered as the next great-power flash point. Russia remained a dominant power. But with NATO expanding northward, Russia was forced to greatly increase its military presence in the region. Growing superpower China has demonstrated greater interest in the Arctic. India, though distant, has also established a foothold. With USA’s increased confrontation with the “Other Big Two” China and Russia, both have begun greater cooperation and coordination on the Arctic.
The Arctic Region
The Arctic region, around Earth’s North Pole, covers over one-sixth of the Earth’s landmass, and is full of floating ice, with ridges up to 20 meters thick. It is estimated to be home to nearly 22 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas. Russia’s vast energy resources account for 52 percent of the Arctic totals and Norway’s 12 percent. Global industrialisation and increased carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions have raised temperatures. Therefore, the glaciers are rapidly melting. The minimum Arctic sea ice extent in 2024 was 4.28 million square kilometres, which is around 1.8 million square kilometres lower than the long-term average. The Arctic sea ice reduction has been at a rate of almost 13 percent per decade. At this rate, the Arctic could be ice-free in the summer by 2040. Melting ice will raise the sea level and submerge many island territories and coastal cities. Climate change and global warming have been engaging the entire world, including during the recent COP29 at Baku, Azerbaijan.
The Arctic Council
Unlike Antarctica, which is uninhabited and administered by a treaty of 1959 that allows only peaceful activities, there is no such treaty covering the Arctic. The Arctic Council was set up in 1996, and it looks into issues faced by the Arctic countries. The United States, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Russia are the eight countries having territory within the Arctic Circle. All are members of this council. The council provides for having countries with observer status. The applicants must “recognise Arctic States’ sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction in the Arctic” and recognise that an extensive legal framework applies to the Arctic Ocean. In May 2013, India became the 11th country to be made a permanent observer at the Arctic Council.
Militarisation and the Arctic Cold War
Both Russia and the United States for long had military bases and had placed surveillance systems, weapons, including nuclear deterrence, in the Arctic region. Russia has been operating nuclear-powered icebreakers in the Arctic for some time. The Arctic Military Environmental Cooperation (AMEC) agreement between Russia, the US, and Norway did help decommission some Soviet and US assets. But recently, the interest of more countries in the Arctic has begun a new Cold War between the “Big Two”. With the West and Russia drawn in a showdown over Ukraine since 2014, the once cooperative approach has started breaking down.
Arctic Sea Routes
Increased ice melting has begun opening the Arctic region for longer periods of time in summer months. There are three main routes. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) along the Arctic coast of Russia. Ice clears up here first and therefore is available for longer duration. It also has the highest commercial potential. The route reduces the maritime distance between East Asia and Europe from 21,000 kilometres via the Suez Canal to 12,800 km. It implies transit time saving by 10–15 days. The NSR was used extensively for natural resource extraction and transportation during the Soviet Era. In 2009, two German ships led by a Russian icebreaker made the first commercial journey across the NSR from Busan in South Korea, to Rotterdam in Netherlands, establishing good commercial prospects.
The North West Passage (NWP), the sea route between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans crossing Canada’s Arctic Archipelago, began being used first in 2007. It may open for more regular use soon. While Canada claims it as an internal waterway, the United States and others insist it is an international transit passage and must allow free and unencumbered movement. This route between East Asia and Western Europe would be around 13,600 km vis-à-vis 24,000 km via the Panama Canal. But parts of the route are just 15 metres deep, thus reducing viability. But China still seems interested in using this passage to Eastern USA, as the Panama Canal too has ship size and tonnage restrictions.
The Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) would use the central part of the Arctic to directly link the Strait of Bering and the Atlantic Ocean port of Murmansk. This route is hypothetical, as it involves ice-free conditions that are not yet observed.
Russia – The Biggest Player
Russia is the Arctic’s largest stakeholder. The region accounts for roughly 10 percent of Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) and 20 percent of all Russian exports. The Arctic has newfound significance in the 2023 Foreign Policy Concept of the Kremlin. Preservation of peace and stability, increasing environmental sustainability, and reducing threats to national security are enshrined. Development of the NSR remains an important objective. Russia remains committed to international law in the Arctic. The Concept reaffirms the sufficiency of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to regulate interstate relations in the Arctic Ocean. Russia is open to “mutually beneficial cooperation” with non-Arctic states that pursue a constructive policy towards Russia.
Russia’s New Arctic Policy 2035, signed in 2020, explicitly introduces the concepts of its sovereignty and territorial integrity over the NSR, much to the chagrin of the United States, which wants the NSR to remain an international waterway under broader Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs). Moscow has “warned to use force against vessels that fail to abide by Russian regulations” in the NSR. Despite Russian overtures suggesting cooperation, the West always casts Russia as the villain in Arctic narratives.
China – A New Player in Arctic
The rising China, which considers itself a “Near-Arctic State,” wants to be a stakeholder in the Arctic. China released its official Arctic Policy Paper in January 2018. It highlights Chinese interests in Arctic resources and the need to create infrastructure for research, military, and other purposes.
China spends more than the USA on Arctic research. It runs a Polar Research Institute in Shanghai. It has a series of research vessels and two MV Xue Long icebreakers. China built the Arctic Yellow River Station in 2004. In 2018, COSCO Shipping Corporation Limited, based in Shanghai, made eight transits through the Arctic between Europe and China.
China’s Polar Silk Road is a joint initiative with Russia and was launched in 2018. Like Russia, China also wants nuclear-powered icebreakers in the Arctic, becoming only the second country to do so. Denmark, instigated by the USA, refused China’s offer to buy an old military base in Greenland and build an international airport.
Indian Arctic Presence and Interests
Being a growing major power, India wants to be a significant player in the Arctic. It has the Himadri permanent Arctic Research Station in Svalbard, Norway, since July 2008. Svalbard is the northernmost year-round settlement on Earth, with a population of about 2,200, and is nearly 1,200 kilometres from the North Pole. India’s research is centred on monitoring fjord dynamics, glaciers, carbon recycling, glaciology, geology, atmospheric pollution, and space weather, among others. In 2014, India also established an underwater moored observatory IndARC at Kongsfjorden Fjord, Svalbard. India wants to find linkages between the Arctic meteorological parameters and the South-West Monsoon. ONGC Videsh has been interested in investing in Russia’s Arctic liquefied natural gas projects.
India’s Arctic Policy, titled India and the Arctic: Building a Partnership for Sustainable Development, was released in March 2022. It enumerated India’s interests, which also include economic and resource prospects, sea connectivity, and reinforcing India’s presence in the region.
INSTC and IMEC Corridors
India is keen to push the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200 kilometre Russia-led multimode network of ship, rail, and road routes. It would move freight between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe, greatly reducing cost and time.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a similar alternative plan led by the West to improve trade between India, the Middle East, and Europe. There is also a proposal for a Chennai–Vladivostok Maritime Corridor to reach closer to the Arctic.
The Way Ahead
Despite international calls for a global moratorium, Norway is looking to become the first country to start commercial deep-sea mining. This is particularly significant, as Norway is a member of the Arctic Council and a significant actor in the Arctic region.
The Arctic continues to lure researchers where “the next great game” seems evolving. Unlike Antarctic, Arctic states already have ownership over most areas through the Law of the Sea regime. The discussions of great-power politics, competition, and conflict in the Arctic are increasingly engaging the strategic community.
Russia’s Northern Fleet is strategically located covering the Arctic regions and has the most dominant position. Interestingly, the USA became an Arctic state because it purchased Alaska from Russia for $7.2 million in 1867. Canada and Northern European states have a great stake and the U.S. is working closely with them.
The NSR is 37 percent shorter to transport cargo from London to Yokohama, Japan, vis-à-vis via the Suez Canal. Russia seeks to benefit economically through a well-developed support infrastructure network strung along its Arctic coastline. Moscow considers the U.S. and its NATO allies a threat to Russia’s Arctic plans. As the great Arctic race unfolds, Russia’s resource-based economy is taking the lead in exploitation. Moscow has already gained rights to approximately 1.7 million square kilometres of seabed. Also, Russia has reopened many of its Arctic Soviet-era military bases and modernized its Navy. Russia has seven nuclear-powered icebreakers and around 30 diesel-powered ones. The US and China have just two diesel-powered icebreakers each in operation. And the USA and NATO have increased the number of military exercises in the Barents Sea and the Scandinavian countries.
China sees the Arctic to quench its thirst for energy and minerals. India would hope that intra-regional cooperation rather than conflict will flourish. But the global competition between the USA, Russia, and China is already becoming consequential. The USA may be the global superpower, but Russia is clearly the Arctic superpower. India’s strong Russian connection and the recent Russian order for India to build four icebreaker ships makes India an even more relevant player. India must remain keenly engaged and keep a foothold in the Arctic. Its interests are more than just wait and watch.
Note: The article was originally written by the Author for Russia Today on 5th, December 2024, it has since been updated.
Header Picture Credit: Representative Image Generated using AI
Twitter: @AirPowerAsia
Air Power Asia 