As India prepares for its 77th Republic Day, it is all set to welcome European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa as the chief guests. Republic Day is not merely a national celebration, but it is a tribute to the day the Indian Constitution came into force, shaping India into the world’s largest democracy. The day highlights India’s unity, democracy, and cultural diversity through parades at Kartavya Path, New Delhi. The Republic Day 2026 theme focuses on “Green Growth and Digital India”, reflecting India’s vision of sustainability and innovation.
The parade also displays India’s military might, including tanks, missiles, and aircraft. There are marching contingents from the Army, Navy, Air Force, and police. The other major nations that display their military might through large-scale parades include China, Russia, France, and North Korea. Russia celebrates “Victory Day” parade on Moscow’s Red Square on 9 May, showcasing its military might. The annual Bastille Day military parade on July 14th along the Champs-Élysées in Paris is one of the largest in Europe and features personnel and equipment from all French Armed Forces. The US has historically held fewer large-scale military parades compared to the others, though a large parade was held in 1991 to mark the end of the Gulf War. A parade was also held in 2025 to mark the US Army’s 250th anniversary, as well as a controversial Independence Day celebration in 2019 arranged by the Trump Administration.
Global Geostrategic Status 2026
The global geostrategic status in January 2026 is characterized by intensified great power competition, increased geopolitical fragmentation, rising protectionism, and a focus on industrial policy for supply chain resilience. Russia continues to slowly gain territory as the Ukraine conflict lingers. Some European nations are suggesting putting their troops on Ukrainian soil and Russia has warned that it could create complications and expand the war. The Gaza Strip sees a fragile ceasefire as Israel continues sporadic punishing attacks.
On 3 January 2026, the United States launched military strikes (Operation Absolute Resolve) on Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. The operation has been roundly condemned as a blatant violation of international law. Meanwhile, Venezuela has started an ‘exploratory process’ to re-establish formal ties with the US. The USA is meanwhile threatening to acquire Greenland by purchasing it from Denmark or using military force. Clearly, President Trump is currently like “a Bull in a China Shop.” Europe is under pressure to defend itself from both Russia and the USA.
Iran seems to be imploding with over two weeks of uprising. The USA and Israel are getting set to launch a massive attack, as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman have been trying diplomatically to ease the tension and urging the United States not to use force.
A more fragmented world sees US–China strategic rivalry, the weaponisation of trade, shifting alliances, significant electoral uncertainty in many nations, and growing tensions over critical resources and technology, all driving nations to prioritize planning and supply chain diversification. The two top economies, the USA and China, are competing across tech, trade, and influence, while rising nationalism challenges traditional globalization. Governments globally are using subsidies, tariffs, and localization drives to secure supply chains, creating new market opportunities and risks. All this is disrupting global trade flows and sending geopolitical shocks.
There is an institutional threat as the UN watches conflicts as a helpless spectator, and Trump leads the USA to pull out of 66 global organisations. This action targets 31 United Nations entities and 35 non-UN bodies, reshaping America’s role in global governance. Trump now wants a “Board of Peace” headed by him by name and with his own nominees to oversee Gaza peace. He also wants to annex/acquire Greenland. Forums like the G20 face challenges from polarized viewpoints, yet remain crucial for harmonizing global agendas amidst growing multi-polarity.
Clearly, the global geostrategic outlook for 2026 is defined by persistent volatility, the emergence of a multipolar world, the erosion of old international norms, and the increasing weaponisation of economic interdependence. Governments are prioritizing economic and national security, leading to state interventionism and trade frictions. New, often transactional, rules for doing business are emerging. Alliances are shifting based on practical interests rather than ideology, and governments are increasingly using policies like tariffs and subsidies as geopolitical tools.
Competition for critical resources, including water, critical minerals, and energy, is intensifying, leading to new production and trade patterns and potential conflicts over access. Geopolitical competition to access critical minerals for technology and defence will intensify. Governments will treat Artificial Intelligence (AI) assets as national security priorities, and AI will act as a force multiplier for cyber conflicts. The politicisation of capital allocation and intensifying geopolitical competition will reshape the global financial system. Nations will focus heavily on economic security and integration with national interests.
The US is expected to remain a dominant player but faces potential stagflationary pressures from tariffs, a softening labour market, and policy volatility, including midterm elections in November 2026. Internal political divisions and the shifting global order pose challenges to Europe’s economic competitiveness and national security posture. Europe will face strategic doubt, a policy triangle of increasing defence needs, climate goals, and fiscal consolidation, which could drive political fragmentation. China’s GDP growth is expected to moderate to around 4.5 percent due to a property market downturn and weak domestic demand. Dynamic powers like India are expected to see strong growth (7.5 percent) but face challenges of a widening wealth gap. Geopolitical dynamics are expected to play out significantly across four key regions: North America, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East, with each region facing unique challenges in balancing economic integration with national security goals.
India’s Neighbourhood Challenges
India’s neighbourhood challenges stem from geopolitical shifts, including China’s growing influence, political instability (like in Bangladesh, Myanmar), economic vulnerabilities (debt crises in Sri Lanka), security threats (terrorism, insurgency), stalled regional cooperation (SAARC), and bilateral irritants (water-sharing, border issues), all testing its “Neighbourhood First” policy and efforts for regional integration.
As of early 2026, India–Pakistan relations remain tense. Underlying drivers like cross-border terrorism persist, with potential for escalation triggered by terrorist attacks, as both nations maintain minimal engagement. The Trump Administration’s sudden direct engagement with the Pakistan Army, and proposed high tariffs (500%) against India, and threat of sanctions in case of continued economic engagement with Russia, has created complex dynamics. This could potentially impact India’s, otherwise balanced, foreign policy focus. Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan also add to the volatile regional security landscape.
Relations between India and Bangladesh, which share one of the world’s largest land borders and deep cultural ties, have been in a spiral for more than a year after the 2024 overthrow of Sheikh Hasina (she fled to India). New Delhi has in turn protested hostile statements by parties in Dhaka, and incidents of violence against Bangladesh’s Hindu minority.
With an old boundary dispute with China, India has three front unfriendly neighbours and need for greater military power, and ability to balance its security concerns and economic growth.
Top Global Militaries
To assert themselves as powerful players on the world stage, countries are fiercely competing to strengthen their military capabilities and allocating vast budgets to defence and military endeavours. Unsurprisingly, the USA continues as the unrivalled leader in military strength, a position it has maintained for some time now, largely owing to its extensive manpower, significant financial resources, substantial material reserves, and industrial output.
Russia remains the second most powerful despite ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Its standing is strengthened by alliances with nations such as Iran, North Korea, and China. China is a close third, having benefited from its alliance with Russia. It continues to expand its military capabilities through substantial investments in defence research and development. Coupled with a robust industrial base, China is also a formidable force, improving its influence across Asia, Africa, and South America.
The three military leaders are followed by India, South Korea, United Kingdom, France, Japan, Turkey, and Italy, in that order. Many are experiencing growth in their defence capabilities, largely driven by rising defence budgets, thriving industrial sectors, and strategic partnerships with established military powers. India’s other major neighbour, Pakistan’s military standing has been influenced by its relationship with China, which has facilitated material acquisitions. Pakistan is 12th in global ranking.
India’s Military Power
India has the world’s second-largest military force by numbers with over 1.4 million active troops and has the world’s largest volunteer army. It also has the fifth-largest defence budget ($81 billion, 1.9 percent of GDP). India holds a strong global military standing, ranked 4th in the 2025 Global Firepower (GFP) Index, behind the US, Russia, and China, primarily due to its massive personnel strength, significant defence budget, diverse arsenal including nuclear weapons, repeated combat exposure, and growing focus on indigenous tech and modernization, aiming for greater self-reliance and power projection, particularly in the Indian Ocean.
With one of the world’s largest active military forces, India possesses a nuclear triad that is growing and modernising, adding significant strategic depth. India is investing heavily in advanced technology, AI, robotics, hypersonic, cyber, electronic warfare, space-based defence, and indigenous production (like Tejas jets, Arjun tanks, and a variety of missiles). It is expanding its blue-water navy to project power in the Indian Ocean Region. Its Air Force has recently been ranked as the world’s third most powerful air force by some metrics.
While strong, it faces challenges in certain high technology areas including aero-engines. The Indian Air Force (IAF) is at an all-time low of 29 fighter squadrons, and the major aircraft programs (LCA, AMCA) are running behind schedule. The Indian Navy is looking for another aircraft carrier, and many more AIP (air-independent propulsion) submarines. Backlog in made-in-India platforms is forcing it to look for systems abroad that include 4/5 generation fighter aircraft, AD systems, and submarines, among others.
Success in Major Wars Fought
The Indian Armed Forces have been engaged in several major military operations, including: the Indo-Pakistani wars of 1947, 1965, and 1971, the 1961 Goa Liberation War with the Portuguese, the 1962 Sino-Indian War, the 1999 Kargil War, the Siachen conflict, and the 2025 India–Pakistan conflict “Op Sindoor” among others. India achieved significant successes in most major conflicts, notably the decisive victory in the 1971 Indo-Pak War, leading to the creation of Bangladesh. Operation Cactus (1988) successfully thwarted a coup attempt in the Maldives, showcasing expeditionary capability. The successful reclamation of territory in the 1999 Kargil War against the Pakistan Army posing as infiltrators. While the 1962 Sino-Indian War was a setback, India also secured key strategic wins like Operation Meghdoot in 1984, which gave India strategic dominance over the Siachen Glacier, and saw victories in earlier conflicts like the 1965 Indo-Pak War, showcasing military resolve and strategic gains. During Op Sindoor, India decimated nearly 20 percent capability of the Pakistan Air Force.
The 1962 tactical defeat where China captured significant territory, highlighting gaps in India’s border preparedness, was a wake-up call for Indian politicians to improve military preparedness. Overall, India’s military history includes decisive victories solidifying its position as a major regional power.
India’s Mature Geostrategic Positions
India’s global strategic position is defined by its strategic autonomy, balancing relationships between the West, China, Russia, and the Global South. India has a pivotal role in the Indo-Pacific through forums like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), and its growing economic/technological strength, positioning it as a key voice for multi-polarity, a rising defence partner, and a crucial player in global trade and innovation, all while managing regional complexities with its neighbours, especially China.
India avoids rigid alliances, maintains flexible relationships with diverse powers (US, Russia, Europe) while advocating for a more representative global order, seen in its G20 push for African Union inclusion. India has been strengthening ties with ASEAN and other maritime nations, emphasizing economic and security frameworks. In the changing global politics, India is maturely handling its relations with China.
Through initiatives like the Voice of Global South Summit, India champions the interests of developing nations and promotes institutional reforms in global governance. India leverages its large, young workforce, growing digital economy, robust start-up ecosystem, and increasing defence manufacturing to attract investment and build partnerships.
India maintains a carefully nuanced and restrained approach in global conflicts (Ukraine, Middle East) and provides critical support to neighbours (e.g., Sri Lanka), showcasing reliability. It dominates vital Indian Ocean trade routes. India’s young, skilled population drives innovation and economic growth. India is a diplomatic bridge connecting the Global South with developed nations.
While facing pressure to pick sides in major geopolitical conflicts, India has been carefully balancing relationships. It has simultaneously managed regional security dynamics, especially with Pakistan and China. In essence, India is moving from adaptation to actively influencing the global agenda, using its unique position as a growing economic power and democratic voice for a multipolar, inclusive world order.
The US exit from the International Solar Alliance (ISA) is significant for India. The ISA, a flagship initiative of the Prime Minister of India, represents one of the few international organizations based in India. American withdrawal from this India-led initiative signals that US domestic energy ideology takes precedence over strategic partnerships in the renewable energy sector. As the world’s most populous democracy and a major emerging economy, India can position itself as a bridge between developed and developing nations on more counts.
Despite recent closer ties, India–US relations have become complex owing to trade and energy disputes that have escalated under the Trump II Administration. India has adopted a “wait and watch” approach and decided to bide time. Meanwhile, India has “tried and tested” friends in Russia and France who have stood by it for decades. India, like the rest of the world, including US allies in Europe, has to bide time. Trump told House Republicans, “If we don’t win midterms (November 2026), I’ll get impeached.” Trump has come under pressure to forget Venezuela and pivot toward domestic issues, especially concerns about inflation and prices.
Turkey is seeking to join Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in a NATO-style military alliance, potentially creating a new security alignment that could affect regional balances. In September, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a defence pact that treats “any aggression” against one member as an attack on all, mirroring NATO’s Article 5. India has generally maintained good relations with most West Asian nations and Israel. It has good relations with South East Asian nations.
Like the rest of the world, it is in India’s interest that peace returns in Ukraine and West Asia. India wants globalization not to be hampered by tariffs and sanctions. India wants the USA not to act like a “global policeman” and let the United Nations and other institutions function without restraint. The global “Doomsday Clock” is now 89 seconds to midnight because the world is already perilously close to the precipice, and an unmistakable warning that we are closer to disaster.
India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has made it a global leader in digital payments, processing 46 percent of the world’s real-time payment transactions. India is home to the world’s third-largest start-up ecosystem, with over 148,000 recognized start-ups generating significant employment opportunities. India has a combat-ready large military with high deterrence. India is a 5,000-year-old civilisation and has weathered many storms. It is time to be an optimist.
Note: The article was originally written by the Author for The First Post on 26th, January 2026, it has since been updated.
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Air Power Asia 