The Houthis and the Red Sea Crisis – Unfolding Action and Options India

Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said that the Indian Navy (IN) has deployed ten ships in that (Gulf of Aden) region because we got a double problem. We have a piracy problem, and we’ve got a missile drone problem. In the last few days, actually, one of our ships extinguished a fire and rescued the crew of a tanker, which had taken a drone. We rescued Pakistani and Iranian fishermen from pirates. India’s greater capability, influence, and reputation warrant that we actually help out others in difficult situations, he added. This is getting India great respect.

The Red Sea Crisis is a spillover of the Israel–Hamas war and the complex dynamics in Yemen. The Yemen-based Houthis have begun attacking commercial shipping in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. The general area covering the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Aqaba, Southern Israel, and airspace of Saudi Arabia and Egypt are directly affected. This has meant disruption of international maritime trade in the Red Sea. The U.S. supported by many of its Western and Asian allies launched “Operation Prosperity Guardian”.  

Who are Houthis?

The Houthi movement is a Shia Islamist political and military organization that emerged from Yemen in the 1990s. It is predominantly made up of Zaidi Shias, drawn largely from the Houthi tribe. The Houthis emerged as an opposition movement to Yemen President Ali Abdullah Saleh, whom they accused of corruption and being backed by Saudi Arabia and the United States. In 2003, influenced by the Lebanese Shia political and military organization Hezbollah, the Houthis adopted their official slogan against the United States, Israel, and the Jews.

The Houthi movement is led by the Supreme Political Council (SPC), a largely unrecognised executive body. Houthis are backed primarily by Iran, and the Iran-backed Hezbollah, and Iraqi militias. They allegedly have support from North Korea. The Houthi movement attracts followers in Yemen by portraying themselves as fighting for economic development, and the end of the political marginalization of Zaidi Shias. They have a complex relationship with Yemen’s Sunnis.

 The organization took part in the Yemeni Revolution of 2011. In late 2014, the Houthis made up of Saleh, and with his help, took control of the capital city Sana’a. This takeover prompted a Saudi-led military intervention that led to the ongoing civil war which included missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia and its ally United Arab Emirates (UAE). Following the outbreak of the 2023 Israel-Hamas war, the Houthis began to fire missiles at Israel and attack ships off Yemen’s coast in the Red Sea, which they say is in solidarity with the Palestinians and aims to facilitate entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.

Currently Houthis control the Yemeni Capital Sanaa, and a significantly large part of Western Yemen overlooking the Red Sea. They want to govern all of Yemen in the long run. The conflict in Yemen is widely seen as a front of the Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy war.

Map Credit: Sana’s Centre for Strategic Studies (October 2023)

Red Sea Crisis

The Red Sea crisis, also known as the United States – Iran proxy war, began on 19 October 2023 when Houthis initiated a series of attacks, targeting Southern Israel and the ships in the Red Sea it claimed were linked to Israel. Unfortunately, some ships with no apparent link to Israel were also targeted.

In the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, the Houthis aligned with Hamas, launched attacks targeting Israel. They employed missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), some of which were intercepted by Israel over the Red Sea using the Arrow missile defence system. Some missiles have been intercepted by the United States Navy, the French Navy and the Israeli Air Force.

Houthi militants have also fired on merchant vessels of various countries in the Red Sea as they passed off the coast of Yemen, in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, a chokepoint of the global economy that leads to the Suez Canal. This resulted in hundreds of cargo ships and tankers being rerouted around the southern tip of Africa to avoid the attacks in the Red Sea. This meant a huge increase in time and cost for all including India. The United States has repeatedly struck Houthis launching a series of strikes alongside the British military since January 11, 2024.

To end the attacks in the Red Sea, the Houthis demanded a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip.

Houthi Weapons

Houthi weapons come mainly from Iran. They are known to use surface-to-surface missiles, artillery rockets, loitering munitions and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). The distance between Western Yemen and Israel is around 1,800 km. They have several missiles and UAVs capable of reaching Israel from Yemen. These include Toufan surface-to-surface missile (1,800 km); Iranian Soumar family Cruise missiles (2,000 km); Quds-2 missile (1,350 km): Samad UAVs/loitering munitions (1,800 km); and Wa’id loitering munition drones (2,500 km).

Soumar (missile); Wikipedia

Military Action Timeline and Engagements

On 19 October 2023, the United States Navy (USN) destroyer USS Carney shot down three land-attack cruise missiles and 15 Houthi drones heading toward Israel launched from Yemen. This was the first action by the U.S. military to defend Israel since the outbreak of the war. Another missile was reportedly intercepted by Saudi Arabia.

At the end of October, there was a failed loitering munitions attack when one drone fell in Taba, Egypt, injuring six, and a second was shot down. Also, the Arrow system intercepted a ballistic missile over the Negev desert above the earth’s atmosphere, making it the first time it has been used in the Israel-Hamas war, and the first instance of space warfare in history. Other platforms intercepted several cruise missiles fired from the Red Sea toward Eilat. One cruise missile was shot down by an Israeli F-35i Adir fighter jet.

Early November, while the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) continued to intercept missiles and drones, a US MQ-9 Reaper drone was shot down off the coast of Yemen by Houthi air defences on 8 November. The very next day a Houthi missile was intercepted by an Arrow 3 missile, marking the first time it was used in a conventional interception. More such intercepts followed. Israeli F-35i started intercepting cruise missiles. On 23 November 2023, the destroyer USS Thomas Hudner shot down several attack drones launched from Yemen. More US ships like the destroyer USS Carney and USS Mason moved in to take on drones and missiles. The French Navy’s frigate Languedoc also began operating in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes started hitting targets such as the Houthi arms depot in Sana’a.

In early December, Houtis launched many more Ballistic missiles. On 18 December 2023 the Indian Navy stationed the destroyer INS Kolkata in the Gulf of Aden for maritime security. The destroyer INS Kochi was already deployed in the region to counter Somali pirates. On 26 December the Indian Navy deployed the destroyers INS Mormugao and Visakhapatnam in the Arabian Sea after an Israel-affiliated merchant vessel was struck off the Indian coast. These deployments were independent of the American-led operations. Later, the Pakistan Navy deployed two Tughril-class frigates, PNS Tughril and Taimur in the Arabian Sea.  As the US moved more ships including USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, USS Gravely, and HMS Diamond, Houthis continued drone and UAV attacks. U.S. Navy SEALs have also been active in raiding Houthi-bound ships. The USA and the UK have intensified their air strikes on targets in Yemen. The strength of American AWACS and flight refuelling aircraft has increased considerably. Denmark’s frigate HDMS Iver Huitfeldt is already on its way to the Red Sea. Americans have been alleging direct involvement of Iran in anti-shipping operations, in addition to direct support to the Houthis. Militaries are regularly having to respond to merchant ships that are being attacked. Strikes on Iranian targets are now becoming imminent. Clearly, a major showdown is now highly likely.

INS Kochi. Image Source: Wikipedia

Global Commercial Impact

A few hundred container ships have already been rerouted to go around Africa, each adding around 6,500 kilometres to the trip distance. This route incurs an extra ten days, spends more fuel, and requires more crew time. Shipping prices have increased. The average price of transporting a 40-feet (12-metre) container on a cargo ship rose 161 per cent to $3,964 on January 25 from $1,521 on December 14.

The insurance cost for commercial ships that go through the Red Sea have increased. Israeli ships have seen an increase of 250 per cent. Some are unable to get any insurance. There are costs of delays in goods deliveries.

Many shipping companies have announced the suspension of import and export services to Israel because of risk and safety considerations. Qatar has halted tankers of liquefied natural gas through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Considering that Qatar is Europe’s second largest supplier of LNG, it raised concerns as the gas was required for winter heating in Europe.

While Israelis would face delays in the supply chain and price hikes, the effects on the Egyptian economy are more severe as shipping through the Suez Canal contributes nearly $9.4 billion to the Egyptian economy which is suffering from a debt crisis made worse by trade disruptions with Israel due to the war in Gaza.

Image Source: The Hindu

Commercial Impact on India

Other than increased Somali piracy, India is heavily reliant on the Red Sea route through the Suez Canal for its trade with Europe, North America, North Africa and the Middle East.  These regions accounted for about 50 per cent of India’s exports of $217bn and about 30 per cent of imports of $205bn a year according to CRISIL Ratings. It could cost the country more than $30bn in exports by 31st March. Of late, Russia has been a key supplier of Crude oil to India. Luckily that does not transit through the Red Sea. The crisis is hurting India’s few major exports, the Basmati rice, tea, and buffalo meat. The government has set up an inter-ministerial panel to monitor the crisis. Indian Navy has made enhanced deployments in the region to secure our shipping.

Indian Navy’s Great Rescue Efforts

The increase in piracy off Somalia’s coast is reportedly linked to the overall disruption in maritime security due to the series of Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

On January 29, the Indian Navy rescued 19 Pakistani sailors after their fishing vessel was hijacked by pirates off Somalia’s coast. This was the second rescue operation in 36 hours by the Indian warship INS Sumitra. Just a few hours earlier, the ship had rescued the 17-member Iranian crew of a vessel which was also hijacked by pirates. INS Sumitra has been deployed for maritime security operations along the east coast of Somalia and the Gulf of Aden.

Earlier, on 26 January, the Indian Navy deployed its warship INS Visakhapatnam in the Gulf of Aden in response to a distress call from Marlin Luanda, a tanker with links to the UK that was on fire for several hours after being hit by a missile fired by the Houthis. French and US naval ships also provided assistance to the vessel. In early January, Indian Navy commandos had rescued 21 crew members from a Liberian-flagged ship which was attacked by pirates off the Somalian coast.

Military and Diplomatic Options Ahead

        Israeli operations in Gaza have killed over 25,000 Palestinians. Despite the ground offensive, Hamas remains heavily entranced in South Gaza and is trying to rest control in the north. The Israelis have confessed that 80 per cent of the tunnel network continues to be intact. While Americans and some Western countries continue to back Israel, there is greater pressure to call for a ceasefire. Back channel discussions are on. The Israeli operations can not carry on forever. Cessation of hostilities may slow down Houthis but Israel has to prevent the recurrence of another “October 07”. It has vowed to finish Hamas, even though that doesn’t seem to be happening.

        Militarily, all arms supplies from Iran to the Houthis have to be stopped. Iranian ships would have to be attacked. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have stationed missile and drone trainers and operators in Yemen. The Qods Force, has overseen the transfer of the attack drones, cruise missiles, and medium-range ballistic missiles. These may have to be attacked within Iran. Direct attacks on Iranian soil could escalate the situation.

        Military supplies if coming from North Korea would have to be stopped in shipping lanes. Even when the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) adopted a resolution on 10 January demanding a cessation of Houthi attacks on merchant vessels, Houthis intensified their attacks. Meanwhile, Houthis insist that “Our battle aims to support the Palestinian people, and has no other goals,” and said that their operations would cease once food and medicine reached all of Gaza. Maybe some compromise can be worked out. But in the long-term, both Hamas and Houthis need to be brought under control. Even the Somali pirates will have to be dealt with. European nations would also have to deal with protests from increasing Muslim populations in their countries. India would have to secure its trade and minimise the impact.

Note: The article was originally written by the Author for First Post. It has since been Updated.

Header Picture Credit: Sky News