US President Donald Trump wanted Pakistan and some other Muslim-majority nations to normalize ties with Israel by joining the Abraham Accords. The Pakistani media and analysts went abuzz analysing benefits and the repercussions for Islamabad. In the last year, Donald Trump repeatedly praised Pakistan‘s civilian and military leaders for their support in the Iran war. Clearly behind this sudden love were some motives and plans to extract concessions from the Muslim world for achieving peace in West Asia.
The Abraham Accords are a series of bilateral agreements brokered by the US and are aimed at normalising ties between Israel and several Arab countries. The first agreements were signed on September 15, 2020, between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Israel and Bahrain. Pakistan clearly found itself in a fix. Normalising ties with Israel was meant to be part of a potential deal to end the Iran war. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Qatar were considered important. Others were Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan.
Abraham Accords
The Abraham Accords emerged against the backdrop of growing unofficial cooperation between Israel and Sunni Arab states throughout the 2010s, driven by shared concerns about Iran. Efforts to build ties had become increasingly public by 2018, with visits by Israeli officials to Gulf States and the start of limited military and intelligence cooperation.
The Abraham Accords are United States-brokered diplomatic agreements to normalise relations between Israel and several Muslim-majority nations. Shifting from decades of Arab policy, they prioritized strategic, economic, and security partnerships first. They have been named after the shared patriarch Abraham to promote solidarity and coexistence among Judaism, Islam, and Christianity. The primary goal was to expand diplomatic ties, direct flights, trade, investment, defence collaboration, and intelligence sharing. After signing the Abraham Accords, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain became the first Arab countries to officially recognize Israel since Jordan did in 1994. Morocco established formal diplomatic and commercial ties in December 2020.
Sudan signed an agreement to normalize relations in October 2020, although implementation and formal ratification have been delayed due to domestic turmoil. Kazakhstan formally joined the grouping in November 2025. In December 2025, Benjamin Netanyahu expanded the accords on his own initiative after Israel recognized Somaliland as an independent country, with Somaliland pledging to join the accords.
Reactions in the Arab world were mixed. While governments expressed support, public opinion in many countries remained opposed, particularly due to the Abraham Accords’ lack of progress on resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Pakistan’s Current Elevated Position
Islamabad enjoyed an elevated global status because Donald Trump chose Islamabad to play a key role as a mediator to end the US–Israel war against Iran. It continued its efforts to broker a deal to end the war permanently. Its role as a mediator was lauded by Donald Trump several times, with the US president calling Pakistan‘s military chief Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif his “favourite” people.
But actually something was brewing much earlier. Asim Munir made an official visit to the United States in June 2025. During the historic five-day trip, he attended a US Army Day celebration and became the first serving Pakistani military chief to meet a sitting US President, Donald Trump, without a civilian delegation. Donald Trump had begun putting words into Asim Munir’s ears ever since.
The elevated position was temporary with an American motive. Pakistan had burnt its fingers in the past (Pressler Amendment). It kept its China channels open and very active.
Pakistan Competing Islamic Leaders
Pakistan is a significant and influential member of the Islamic world, holding massive strategic weight due to its large population, military strength, and status as the only declared nuclear-weapon state. However, it is not the sole leader, as the mantle of leadership is shared and contested among several major powers. Pakistan possesses the sixth-largest standing military globally and remains the only Muslim-majority nation to have developed and tested nuclear weapons. It has historically played an active leadership role in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), frequently advocating for Islamic causes such as the Palestinian issue and fighting Islamophobia. With over 240 million people, it represents the second-largest Muslim population in the world, just behind Indonesia.
Saudi Arabia holds immense religious and economic sway as the custodian of the two Holy Mosques (Mecca and Medina) and the leader of the global oil economy. It is therefore widely recognized by many Arab and Muslim nations as the traditional leader of the Islamic world. Turkey and Iran, both countries possess rich historical empires, large economies, and distinct geopolitical agendas that heavily influence the Middle East and Central Asia. Turkey claims a modernized, powerful leadership role, heavily driven by its heritage as the seat of the historical Ottoman Empire. Turkey actively projects itself as a vocal defender of Muslim interests on the global stage, backing its influence with a robust defence industry. Indonesia commands the largest Muslim population globally and leads in economic integration, while Egypt acts as a historic cultural and political anchor through institutions like Al-Azhar University.
While Pakistan positions itself as a “fortress of Islam”, its ability to act as the supreme leader is limited by ongoing economic instability, domestic political transitions, and regional geopolitical dynamics. Ultimately, Pakistan remains a vital nuclear and diplomatic middle power within the Islamic world rather than its singular leader. While all these nations cooperate on economic and defence issues, they often have competing foreign policy goals, preventing any one country from holding ultimate leadership.
Pakistan Saudi Defence Agreement
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA), a landmark security and defence pact on 17 Sept, 2025. Formalized in Riyadh, the treaty included a collective defence clause declaring that any act of aggression against either country would be considered an aggression against both. The pact went far beyond previous training agreements to institutionalise joint military mechanisms, intelligence sharing, and mutual defence. Given Pakistan‘s status as the only nuclear-armed state in the Islamic world, the agreement sparked major international analysis and speculation regarding an extended nuclear umbrella or extended deterrence for Saudi Arabia. The pact emerged as a result of Saudi Arabia‘s desire to diversify its security partnerships, hedging against the perceived unreliability of traditional Western guarantees amid escalating Middle East tensions, while providing Pakistan with strategic relevance and economic lifelines.
Pakistan’s Position on Palestine
Like many other Muslim countries, Pakistan has traditionally supported Palestinian cause and opposed Israel. To join the Abraham Accords while mediating US–Iran peace, made things much tougher for Pakistan. Some Pakistani officials rejected the demand. There was a feeling that benefits of joining the Abraham Accords were real but politically overstated. But there had not been any unanimous or unequivocal response from the government or its powerful military as yet. Pakistan could gain diplomatic goodwill in Washington and some Gulf capitals, and there could be economic or technological openings. But what if the Iran War talks failed, the move could come with substantial risks for Pakistan. It could damage Pakistan‘s standing on Palestine, fuel further tension with Iran, and increase domestic instability. Unless there was meaningful progress toward Palestinian statehood, including Jerusalem as capital, normalisation would look less like strategic autonomy and more like capitulation. For now, the costs were likely to outweigh the gains. Religious parties, Islamist groups, sections of the right-wing media, and even mainstream political actors were watching very closely, and waiting to pounce on the establishment.
Pakistan Looking Towards Saudis
Pakistan is not an Arab monarchy; its domestic politics, religious parties, media ecosystem, and public attachment to Palestine make normalisation far more complicated. Finally Pakistan would look towards Saudi Arabia’s decision to join or not to join the Abraham Accords. Saudi Arabia moving first would make it easier for Pakistan to convince its people, especially hardliners. Notwithstanding, it would still be a complicated move for Pakistan. Could they both lay some minimum conditions on Gaza and Palestinian issues?
Can Pakistan Antagonise USA?
Pakistan has deep economic and military ties with the US, which help it keep the geopolitical balance with its regional archrival and neighbour, India. Pakistani military and political leaders have interests and investments in the West. USA, and CIA have their dossiers, and enough hold over the Pakistani leaders. The US remains Pakistan’s largest single export destination, crucial for generating foreign revenue for its struggling economy. Islamabad is also aware that Washington holds significant sway over global monetary institutions like the IMF.
The Iran war disrupted Pakistan‘s energy supply, with fuel prices soaring since the start of the conflict. For Pakistan, it was essential that the war ended soon. But Donald Trump‘s Abraham Accords demand in connection to the Iran war put the country in a bind with no easy way out. Going against Donald Trump could come at a price for Islamabad, and the Generals were conscious of this.
To Summarise
Pakistani analyst Muhammad Mohsin Iqbal said that nations are often compelled to choose between expediency and principle. Some surrender their convictions upon the altar of temporary political advantage, while others remain steadfast to the moral compass that defines their national soul. He hoped Pakistan would be in the latter category. He argued that Pakistan came into existence not merely as a geographical entity but as an ideological state founded upon the aspiration of justice, dignity, and solidarity with the oppressed. The question of Palestine is therefore not a passing diplomatic issue for Pakistan; it is a matter deeply interwoven with the nation’s moral identity. The Abraham Accords would create a glaring contradiction in Pakistan’s foreign policy and erode its credibility before the Muslim world and its own people.
Whether Pakistan decided to join or not, any decision Islamabad took regarding the Abraham Accords would be extremely consequential and would likely determine the future course of the country. President Donald Trump had linked a peace deal with Iran to eight Muslim countries simultaneously signing the Abraham Accords. Bahrain and the UAE had already signed on to the deal. Turkey, Egypt and Jordan had diplomatic relations with Israel, and were maybe more amenable. For Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Pakistan, it would be a serious dilemma. But they were conscious that continued Iran War or tensions in West Asia had serious security and economic issues for all these countries. Signing the Abraham Accords without resolving the Palestine issue would be a big give away, and risk internal disturbances and public anger pouring out onto the streets.
Pakistan had been heavily invested in mediating between the warring sides and had been hoping that a settlement of the conflict would open up security, diplomatic and economic opportunities for them in West Asia. Donald Trump had said that if any country didn’t sign on, “they will not be part of this deal in that it shows bad intention”. This would put Pakistan in a Catch-22 situation. How the Pakistani military, which de facto controls the country, will handle the public backlash in Pakistan will bother the establishment.
Notwithstanding Islamabad’s publicly asserted position, the Pakistani military and civilian establishment often flirted with the idea of recognising Israel and building relations. They would want to woo Israel a little away from India, and maybe get some defence technologies. It would also win favour with the USA.
If they were unsure, the Pakistan military could orchestrate demonstrations by Islamist groups to evade international pressure and convince Westerners that Pakistan‘s hands were tied. The Pakistan military was also highly Islamised and there could be an upheaval within. Such a revolt would be unacceptable to the establishment.
So Pakistan had to choose between pleasing Sam, and getting some economic support, or losing influence in the Islamic world, and going against public opinion. Could they skirt the signing of the Abraham Accords by soft talking the Donald Trump Administration? USA being a declining power, and having the second superpower China in their fold, could also give Pakistan a little leverage. But if they found that not getting on board would invite huge costs, then the Pakistanis could do a U-turn. Clearly Pakistan today is sandwiched between the two ends of the Vise.
Header Picture Credit: Representative Image Generated using AI
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