The Russia-Ukraine conflict is already in its fifth year, and the end is still not in sight. The United States, though not completely abandoning NATO, is executing a strategic shift under the Trump administration—termed “NATO 3.0”—that significantly reduces American force commitments and pressures Europe to take the lead in its own conventional defence.
The 2026 Iran war has lasted for over six months since it began on February 28, 2026. President Donald Trump originally predicted the conflict would last only four to five weeks. The war has turned into a persistent stalemate with ongoing maritime and regional skirmishes, with no clear end date.
The results of the November midterm elections will shape Trump’s remaining tenure and the 2028 presidential cycle. As it stands, the Democrats are projected to take the House of Representatives, while the Senate is a closer call.
Several BRICS members directly involved in or under attack in current major conflicts are Russia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE has been drawn directly into the Middle East conflict after being targeted by retaliatory Iranian strikes, leading to heightened regional tensions between fellow bloc members.
These active conflicts—particularly the friction between Iran and the UAE– have severely tested BRICS Summit unity in New Delhi, complicating consensus and joint communiqués on West Asian geopolitics. Other members like China and India are also indirectly affected through energy market disruptions and spiking global oil prices. India has been facilitating negotiations within BRICS on the West Asia conflict.
Trump has chosen the BRICS countries for a special dose of steep tariffs alongside his repeated criticism of the bloc as “anti-American”. India and Brazil face the highest US reciprocal tariff rates at 50% each among founding BRICS members, followed heavily by China and South Africa under US President Donald Trump‘s trade policies. Yet, the BRICS nations are not fully united to counter Trump‘s aggressive tariffs and dollar dominance.
While China, India, and Brazil try to lead the Global South, Russia, the “expelled” Global North member, remains a key pillar of the BRICS. Trump had been making vocal attacks on the bloc. BRICS expanded with five new member nations, forging a stronger alliance that has the economic and political muscle to push back against Trump‘s tariff offensives. Earlier last year, Trump changed his stance and aggressively pushed cryptocurrency to make the US the world’s crypto capital. This was perceived as a counter to the BRICS currency aimed at challenging the petrodollar’s dominance, as well as an attempt to capitalise on the lucrative digital asset market.
In the wake of Trump’s threats, PM Modi reaffirmed India‘s commitment to deepen the strategic partnership with Putin’s Russia, open channels with China, and increase diplomatic engagement in West and Central Asia.
BRICS
BRICS is a forum for cooperation among a group of leading emerging economies. Begun by five members—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—the initials of which formed the acronym, it has added Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates to make a group of ten, making it BRICS-Plus. The BRICS mechanism aims to promote peace, security, development, and cooperation. It evolved as a combination of the two forums RIC (Russia, India, and China) and IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa). The first summit took place in 2009. Some in the West consider BRICS the alternative to the G7. Others describe the grouping as having increasing anti-Western and anti-American objectives. BRICS has implemented competing initiatives such as the New Development Bank, the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement, BRICS PAY, the BRICS Joint Statistical Publication, and the BRICS basket reserve currency. BRICS has established almost 60 intra-group institutions and think tanks to facilitate dialogue and cover the agenda in 34 subjects. All the original five members and Indonesia are also part of the G20.
BRICS has received both praise and criticism from numerous commentators and world leaders. The BRICS economic bloc has actively sought to reduce its reliance on the US dollar. China has even pushed for “de-dollarisation” by promoting its currency, the Yuan, and forming currency swap agreements with other countries.
Trump’s erratic approach to tariffs and global agreements has revived doubts about the US’s reliability on the world stage and raised long-term concerns about the stability of the dollar. Emerging powers such as China and India have expanded their global influence, and alternative financial systems, including the rise of cryptocurrencies, have gained traction.
| Land AreaMillion Sq.km. and % of Earth | PopulationBillions | GDP% of Global(2024) | Defence Spend | |
| BRICS(5) | 39.75 (26.7%) | 3.3 | 28.9% and 42.5%(PPP) | $567 billion |
| G7 | 20.05 (13.4%) | 0.78 | 29% | $1.2 trillion |
| EU | 4.18 (2.8%) | 0.45 | 17.5% | $378 billion |
| NATO | 27.5 (18.5%) | 0.952 | 30% | $1.47 trillion |
Impact of West Asia Conflict on BRICS
Expanding the bloc from 5 to 11 members brought in countries with divergent security interests, turning ideal multipolarity into a complex stress test. The West Asia conflict severely tests BRICS unity by creating deep diplomatic divisions and straining consensus-building among its expanded membership. Direct involvement of members like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in regional hostilities makes it hard to draft unified joint statements. During India‘s 2026 BRICS chairmanship, contrasting positions on attribution and resolution have hindered consensus for final declarations.
Major oil importers like India and China face severe supply vulnerabilities and maritime disruptions near critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, and more recently, the Bab al-Mandab Strait to the Red Sea. The crisis accelerates discussions on long-term energy pricing, secure shipping passages, and cross-border trade using local currencies.
De-Dollarisation
The US dollar is the world’s primary reserve currency, and it is also the most widely used currency for trade and other international transactions. As per a JPMorgan report, the US’s share in global exports and output has declined, and China’s has increased, yet the dollar’s transactional dominance is still evident in areas including foreign exchange (FX) volumes and trade invoicing. However, its hegemony has come into question in recent times due to geopolitical and geostrategic shifts. As a result, de-dollarisation has increasingly become a substantive topic of discussion.
Some form of de-dollarisation is unfolding. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that the US dollar‘s share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to around 56%, marking a multi-decade low. The dollar share was 64% in 2015. The share of foreign ownership in the US Treasury market has fallen over the last 15 years, pointing to reduced reliance on the dollar. De-dollarisation is most visible in commodity markets, where a large and growing proportion of energy is being priced in non-dollar-denominated contracts. The concept of de-dollarisation relates to changes in the structural demand for the dollar that would relate to its status as a reserve currency.
There are two main factors that could erode the dollar’s status. The first is the perceived safety and stability of the currency, and the USA’s overall standing as the world’s leading economic, political, and military power. The ongoing US tariff policy could also cause investors to lose confidence in American assets.
The second is the positive developments outside the US that boost the credibility of alternative currencies, such as those in a rising and stable China. De-dollarisation could shift the balance of power among countries, and this could, in turn, reshape the global economy and markets. The impact would be most acutely felt in the US, where de-dollarisation would likely lead to a broad depreciation and underperformance of US financial assets versus the rest of the world.
The gross national debt of the United States has officially surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, climbing steadily due to structural budget deficits. Roughly 80% is owned by domestic and foreign investors. Foreign countries own about $9.3 trillion (approx. 23-24%) of this total. Roughly $8 trillion is owed by the federal government to its own internal trust funds, such as Social Security. This is fuelling fears about long-term US economic stability, potentially raising borrowing costs that could impact global investors, central banks, and everyday consumers.
Yet, in the foreign exchange market, the top currencies remain the US$ with 44% of all forex transactions, Euro (EUR) 16.5%, Japanese Yen (JPY) 8.4%, British Pound Sterling 6.4%, and Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY) 4-7%. Clearly, the US$ and EUR have held steady shares over the past two decades. While the share of CNY is increasing in China’s global transactions as it moves to conduct bilateral trade in its own currency, it is still relatively low. According to data compiled by the World Gold Council for the first half of 2026, the largest sovereign buyers of gold by country through official central bank net purchases are led by Poland, Uzbekistan, and China.
Due to Western sanctions, Russian oil products exported to some major countries are being sold in the local currencies of buyers, or in the currencies of countries Russia perceives as friendly. Among buyers, India, China, and Turkey are all either using or seeking alternatives to the dollar. Saudi Arabia is also considering adding Yuan-denominated futures contracts in the pricing model of Saudi Arabian oil. Yuan is gaining ground outside of oil too. Some Indian companies have started paying for Russian coal imports in Yuan, even without Chinese intermediaries. Bangladesh also recently decided to pay Russia for its 1.4 GW nuclear power plant in Yuan. The de-dollarisation trend in the commodity trade is a boon for countries like India, but de-dollarisation is still far off and progressing slowly.
BRICS Approach to Trump Tariffs
Trump tariffs have hit BRICS badly. Trump has escalated trade tensions by doubling tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, citing India‘s continued imports of Russian oil, which accounted for an all-time high of 48% by volume in June 2026. Brazil faced a similar 50% tariff increase, linked to Trump‘s allegations of political persecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil‘s Lula rejected Trump‘s offer for direct trade talks. Russia is under sanctions. After the US revoked Russia’s Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status, many Russian goods are subject to around 20% tariffs. Trump cooled down against China after tariff retaliation. China and South Africa currently face a 30% tariff.
Trump‘s rhetoric has been blunt and nasty. He called India and Russia “dead economies” and accused New Delhi of profiting from reselling refined Russian oil. He further warned that BRICS nations aligning against US interests would face an additional 10% tariff. India has been reminding the USA of India‘s “steady and time-tested” ties with Russia and urged the US not to view these relations through a third-country lens.
The large and powerful BRICS bloc strategises against Trump tariffs. There is talk of increased tariff-free bilateral trade. Meanwhile, India’s RBI has allowed Category-1 banks to open special Rupee-Vostro accounts for Russian oil companies to invest surplus funds in Indian government securities.
Capacity to Take on the USA
Individually, each BRICS member wants access to the US market. China has reacted with counter-sanctions, but it has some capacity to push the US for concessions. The leverage with other members to call Trump‘s bluff is relatively limited. The US has held negotiations with many foreign trading partners and managed significant deals with two-thirds of them. Notwithstanding Lula’s strong statements, no collective official statement has come out yet from BRICS.
India has walked a calibrated path. It has chosen a “blow hot, blow cold” approach and back-channel diplomacy to find some middle ground. It has made it clear that its relations with Russia remain very important. It has also made clear that India will trade with any country based on bilateral understandings and India’s economic interests. The Chinese ambassador to India, Xu Feihong, once tweeted on X that, “Give the bully an inch, he will take a mile.” Using tariffs as a weapon to suppress other countries violates the UN Charter, undermines WTO rules, and is both unpopular and unsustainable.
The Unified Payments Interface (UPI) developed by India is a huge success story and has been adopted in many countries. We can also cooperate with other BRICS countries in this area.
While the dollar continues to dominate international trade, nearly 20% of oil trading is now in non-dollar currencies. This is mainly because India and China are buying significant Russian oil in non-dollar currencies. While India has relied on the dirham for payments, China has opted for the Yuan. The US felt threatened and decided on additional tariffs unless they committed to never creating “a new BRICS currency nor backing any other currency to replace the mighty US dollar.” While Trump truly intended to weaken the BRICS, his policies are having the opposite effect. The US President is uniting the group at a moment when they were facing significant challenges.
Yet the BRICS have never been a completely harmonious group in terms of their international interests and positioning. India and China have a long-standing rivalry in Asia. India has long viewed China’s proximity to Pakistan, its primary foe, with suspicion. Brazil, India, and South Africa have consistently sought to maintain a non-aligned stance, refusing to be entirely aligned with Russia in its tensions with the West. The challenges to consensus have increased with Iran joining the group and its views on Palestine and Yemen. Egypt and Ethiopia also have some regional rivalries. Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE won’t let anything pass against the USA. There are issues about support for the BRICS currency.
China is India’s second-largest commercial partner, surpassed only by the US. With the new US tariffs, China will gain even more economic influence over India. India has become very conscious of US flip-flops, and it is bound to affect India’s purchases and engagement with the USA. Will India pause Russian oil purchases as global prices are low, and consider offering concessions on agricultural and dairy products to arrive at a deal? This remains a moot question.
BRICS Catching Up on G7 but Challenges Remain
The G7 comprises Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. They want to maintain global policy leadership, maintain the existing international order, and lead global policy on security, climate change, and global finance.
BRICS‘s priority is to push multipolarity, challenge the existing Western-dominated global order, and reform the international financial architecture. While historically smaller than the G7 in nominal GDP, BRICS has now caught up with the G7 in GDP and is much ahead when measured by purchasing power parity (PPP). BRICS is expected to be a major driver of future global economic growth, particularly with the continued expansion of the BRICS-plus grouping, while the G7‘s growth is projected to be slower. More than 40 countries have expressed an interest in BRICS membership, including NATO member Turkey.
But BRICS faces challenges related to internal conflicts and diverging foreign policies, while the G7 generally maintains greater unity, though USA–Canada and USA–EU frictions are now more visible. Russia, China, and Iran are keen to compete with the dollar as a reserve currency, to circumvent sanctions, and to present a counter-model to the West, which is perceived as too dominant. Countries such as South Africa and Egypt, on the other hand, attach importance to economic diversification and strengthening the voice of the Global South without burning all other bridges. China is attempting to dominate the BRICS alliance politically. However, India is growing into another major regional power that is competing with China‘s ambitions, especially as India is pushing its own model of “Strategic Autonomy”. For India, BRICS membership is increasingly becoming a balancing act. It is the only country in the group to find itself in open conflict with heavyweight China. India is not in favour of the anti-Western course that China, Russia, and Iran would like to see for the BRICS. It is wait-and-watch time for international politics and the global order.
Russia-India Bilateral Push
The Prime Minister meets with the President of the Russian Federation on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit. The two leaders reviewed progress in bilateral cooperation in political, economic, defence, energy, space, skill mobility, and people-to-people domains. They welcomed Russia’s International Industrial Exhibition “INNOPROM India“, which was held for the first time in India from 9-11 September 2026, and underscored its importance in further expanding trade and industrial ties. The two leaders also visited the INNOPROM India exhibition and interacted with the participants. Russia is pushing for the make-in-India Su-57, and negotiations for local licensed production of Russia‘s SJ-100 regional jet by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) are more than 80% complete, with a final agreement expected soon.
To Summarise
As the war between the US-Israel coalition and Iran intensifies in West Asia, the possibility of a joint statement from the BRICS grouping is drawing attention in diplomatic circles. With several members of the bloc either directly involved in the conflict or closely aligned with the parties concerned, a consensus position could carry unusual geopolitical weight and shape how the broader Global South responds to the crisis. As chair of the bloc this year, India is facilitating consultations among member states for a possible joint statement—an exercise that could test the forum’s ability to forge common ground among countries with sharply differing strategic interests.
As chair of BRICS, India has been facilitating discussions among BRICS members through the Sherpa channel. Any consensus statement by the BRICS bloc on the ongoing conflict in West Asia would carry significant diplomatic and geopolitical weight. Prime Minister Modi recently met the leaders of Russia, China, and Iran at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit held in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, at the end of August 2026.
The Prime Minister expressed deep concern about the evolving security situation in the region and reiterated India’s consistent position that all issues must be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy. The Prime Minister highlighted India’s priority regarding the safety and well-being of Indian nationals in the region, including in Iran, as well as the importance of unhindered transit of energy and goods.
Russia and China have strategic ties with Iran. India maintains relations with all sides, including Israel, Iran, and the US. However, since Iran has been targeting US bases in BRICS member countries, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, things have become complex for BRICS. In such a context, achieving consensus on a conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran would be a significant diplomatic challenge.
Header Picture Credit: Representative Image Generated using AI
Twitter: @AirPowerAsia
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